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Changements climatiques et santé: Le contexte climatique
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (UCL) Vice-président du GIEC de 2008 à 2015
Twitter: @JPvanYpersele Conférence « changements climatiques et santé », CFDD, Sénat, Bruxelles, 26-10-2017
Merci au Gouvernement wallon pour son soutien à la www.plateforme-wallonne-giec.be et à mon équipe à l’Université catholique de Louvain pour son soutien
Saturn, as seen on 25-4-2016 from a 3 million km distance by the Cassini satellite launched in
October 1997, 40 years after Sputnik
That small blue dot is the Earth, a seen from Cassini, orbiting Saturn, 1.44 billion km from
us, on 19-7-2013
!!!!!!!!!!!!Apollo 17,!7 Dec. 1972!
Our atmosphere is thin and fragile (as seen by ISS crew on 31 July 2013)
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
2014,2015,2016=warmestyearssince1880
Source: NASA GISS
6789::***;-.0.<;=.:-.0.<:>2.*:?,:((@$"AB,C4D./;60-DE>2.*)!'!$(F!@&
Uccle n’est pas en reste:
Surfacedelaglacedemerarc-que(écartparrapportàlamoyenne)
Change in average sea-level change
IPCC AR5 WGI (2013)
Lesrécifscoralliensmeurent
AmericanSamoa(fromwww.globalcoralbleaching.org)
QoriKalisGlacier(Pérou):juillet1978
Source:Dr.LonnieThompson(OSU),viah7p://climate.nasa.gov/images-of-change#543-melCng-qori-kalis-glacier-peru
QoriKalisGlacier(Pérou):juillet2011
Source:Dr.LonnieThompson(OSU),viah7p://climate.nasa.gov/images-of-change#543-melCng-qori-kalis-glacier-peru
B. Holt - JPL
Greenland Ice Mass Loss 2002-2009 Derived From NASA GRACE Gravity Mission
Greenland
Chan
ge in
Ice
Mas
s Los
s Gig
aton
s
J. Wahr, U. Colorado
Velicogna, Geophysical Research Letters, 2009
•Contributes to sea level rise
Winter(DJF)seasonalchangesinheavyprecipita-on(%),2071-2100comparedto1971-2000
IPCC,AR5,WGII,Chap.23,p.1277
P6(='#,%65N(,%65(#'9:)'619(W'#'6X1(2#'2%#')($3#(1K'(,%99(Y33):6+(%9(1K'(#%:6(
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U+762+/&G46,+V.,&:&BW&
InPuertoRico,HurricaneMariacreatedin2017theworsthumanitariancrisisintheUS
fordecades
Source:FEMA,24-9-2017
PourquoileGIEC(Grouped’expertsIntergouvernementalsurl’Evolu-onduClimat)?
Mandat:fournirauxdécideursunesourceobjec-ved’informa-onàpropos:
• descausesdeschangementsclima-ques
• desscénariospossiblesd’évolu-on
• desconséquencesobservéesoufuturespourl’environnementetlesac-vitéshumaines
• lesop-onsderéponsepossibles(adapta-on&abénua-on=réduc-ondesémissions).
OMM=Organisa-onMétéorologiqueMondialePNUE=ProgrammedesNa-onsUniespour
l’Environnement
Etabli par l’OMM et le PNUE en 1988
Que se passe-t-il dans le système climatique ?
Quels sont les risques ?
Que peut-on faire ?
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Messages clés •! L’influence humaine sur le système climatique est
claire •! La poursuite des émissions de gaz à effet de serre
augmentera le risque d’impacts graves, répandus et irréversibles pour les populations et les écosystèmes
•! Alors que les changements climatiques représentent une menace pour le développement durable, il existe de nombreuses opportunités pour intégrer l’atténuation, l’adaptation, et la poursuite d’autres objectifs sociétaux
•! L’Humanité a les moyens de limiter les changements climatiques et de construire un avenir plus durable et plus résilient
AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM
QdE(Q36&'61#%-36N([%5(EFAf(/<''*:6+(&"#L'7(
Source: /4,288/;K4/V;.VK:8,<I,+-/:T..D23I4K,>.:&
(Lüthi et al.,2008, NOAA)
+30%
2015
The concentrations of CO2 have increased to levels
unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
1000 years before present
CO
2 Con
cent
ratio
ns (p
pm)
Atmospheric concentrations of CO2!
AR3 AR2
AR1 AR4
A Progression of Understanding: Greater and Greater Certainty in Attribution
AR1 (1990): “unequivocal detection not likely for a decade”
AR2 (1995): “balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence”
AR3 (2001): “most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (odds 2 out of 3) due to human activities”
AR4 (2007): “most of the warming is very likely (odds 9 out of 10) due to greenhouse gases”
IPCC
BZ'&H!"#RJ&[\0&2/&'^1#','*5(*:g'*5(&H<VV/&@'&<K0&<?&#""J&06+0&6K-+3&23]K.34.&&6+/&=..3&06.&V<-23+30&4+K/.^&_&
Carbon cycle: unperturbed fluxes
Units: GtC (billions tons of carbon) or GtC/year (multiply by 3.7 to get GtCO2)
120
70.5
70
2300
Atmosphere pre-ind : 597
38000 Ocean
3700
respiration
Physical,
Chemical, and Biological processes
photosynthesis 119.5
280 ppmv (1ppmv = 2.2 GtC) GtC
Carbon cycle: perturbed by human activities (numbers for the decade 1990-1999s, based on IPCC AR4)
Units: GtC (billions tons of carbon) or GtC/year
120
70.5
70
2300
Atmosphere pre-ind : 597
38000 Ocean
3700
GtC + 3.2/yr
déforestation (& land use changes) Fossil fuels
6.4
-244 +120 -40
1.6 sinks
2.6 respiration
2.2
Physical, Chemical, and
Biological processes
photosynthesis 119.5
[email protected] Stocks!
280 ppmv + 1.5 ppmv/yr (1ppmv = 2.2 GtC)
RCP Scenarios: Atmospheric CO2 concentration
AR5, chapter 12. WGI- Adopted version / subject to final copyedit
Three stabilisation scenarios: RCP 2.6 to 6 One Business-as-usual scenario: RCP 8.5
Only the lowest (RCP2.6) scenario maintains the global surface temperature increase above the pre-industrial level to less than 2°C with at
least 66% probability
(IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SP
M.7
a)
18-20000 years ago (Last Glacial Maximum) With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in « Climat d’hier à demain », CNRS éditions.
Today, with +4-5°C globally With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in « Climat d’hier à demain », CNRS éditions.
e3#1K(]"#32'(O([%2(3$(1',2'#%1"#'(&K%6+'9?(EFDAhEAFF(W:1K(#'92'&1(13((
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Sea level due to continue to increase
(IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SP
M.9
)
(Ref: 1986-2005)
With 1 metre sea-level rise: 63000 ha below sea-level in Belgium (likely in 22nd century, not impossible in 21st century)
(NB: flooded area depends on protection)
Source: J.P. van Ypersele et P. Marbaix (2004) See www.climate.be/impacts
(Time 2001)
Effets sur le Delta du Nil, où vivent plus de 10 millions de personnes à moins d’1 m d’altitude
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
P,2%&19(%#'(%*#'%)5("6)'#W%5(
•! Tropics!to!the!poles •! On!all!continents!and!in!the!ocean •! Affecting!rich!and!poor!countries (but the
poor are more vulnerable everywhere)
AR5 WGII SPM
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IPCC, AR5, SPM, Figure SPM.8
Regional key risks and risk reduction through adaptation
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HumanHealth:Impacts,Adapta-on,andCo-Benefits(1)
• ThehealthofhumanpopulaConsissensiCvetoshicsinweatherpa7ernsandotheraspectsofclimatechange(veryhighconfidence).
• UnClmid-centuryclimatechangewillactmainlybyexacerbaCnghealthproblemsthatalreadyexist(veryhighconfidence).
IPCC,AR5,WGII,chap.11,ExecuCveSummary,p.713
HumanHealth:Impacts,Adapta-on,andCo-Benefits(2)
• Inrecentdecades,climatechangehascontributedtolevelsofillhealth(likely)thoughthepresentworldwideburdenofillhealthfromclimatechangeisrelaCvelysmallcomparedwithotherstressorsonhealthandisnotwellquanCfied
IPCC,AR5,WGII,chap.11,ExecuCveSummary,p.713
HumanHealth:Impacts,Adapta-on,andCo-Benefits(3)
• Impactsonhealthwillbereduced,butnoteliminated,inpopulaConsthatbenefitfromrapidsocialandeconomicdevelopment(highconfidence),parCcularlyamongthepoorestandleasthealthygroups(veryhighconfidence).
• InaddiContotheirimplicaConsforclimatechange,essenCallyalltheimportantclimate-alteringpollutants(CAPs)otherthancarbondioxide(CO2)havenear-termhealthimplicaCons(veryhighconfidence)
IPCC,AR5,WGII,chap.11,ExecuCveSummary,p.713
HumanHealth:Impacts,Adapta-on,andCo-Benefits(4)
• SomepartsoftheworldalreadyexceedtheinternaConalstandardforsafeworkacCvityduringtheho7estmonthsoftheyear.
• ThemosteffecCvemeasurestoreducevulnerabilityintheneartermareprogramsthatimplementandimprovebasicpublichealthmeasuressuchasprovisionofcleanwaterandsanitaCon,secureessenCalhealthcareincludingvaccinaConandchildhealthservices,increasecapacityfordisasterpreparednessandresponse,andalleviatepoverty(veryhighconfidence).
IPCC,AR5,WGII,chap.11,ExecuCveSummary,p.713-714
mT&
Q*:,%1'(QK%6+'(>39'9(S:9g9(%6)(d223#1"6:-'9(S'*%1')(13(Z'%*1K((
•! The 2015 Lancet Commission on Climate Change and Health report stated: “The effects of climate change are being felt today, and future projections represent an unacceptably high and potentially catastrophic risk to human health.”
•! BUT it also underscored that Tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century.
Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.
Fig. SPM.10
© IP
CC
201
3
Fig. SPM.10
Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
© IP
CC
201
3
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
The window for action is rapidly closing 65% of the carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal is already used NB: this is with a probability greater than 66% to stay below 2°C NB: this is with a probability greater than 66% to stay below 2°C
Amount Used 1870-2011:
1900 GtCO2
Amount Remaining:
1000 GtCO2
Total Carbon Budget:
2900 GtCO2
AR5 WGI SPM NB: Emissions in 2011: 38 GtCO2/yr
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
!1%`:*:i%-36(3$(%1,392K'#:&(&36&'61#%-369(#'.":#'9(,3L:6+(%W%5($#3,(1K'(`%9'*:6'(h(#'+%#)*'99(3$(1K'(,:-+%-36(+3%*U(
iRj`&
k+/.V&<3&X2IK,.&(;F& AR5 WGIII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Mitigation Measures
More efficient use of energy
Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy - Many of these technologies exist today - But worldwide investment in research in support of GHG mitigation is small!
Improved carbon sinks - Reduced deforestation and improved forest management
and planting of new forests - Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
Lifestyle and behavioural changes AR5 WGIII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
The Choices Humanity Makes Will Create Different Outcomes (and affect prospects for effective adaptation)
With substantial mitigation
Without additional mitigation
Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100) AR5 WGI SPM
TV&
RQ>(S'&3,,'6)%-369((
•! A global effort is required to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse emissions and address the health impact of climate change. The United States must commit to taking both a leadership and collaborative role in developing, implementing and ensuring the success of such a global effort and in reducing its own contributions to greenhouse emissions. Climate change adaptation strategies must be established and mitigation measures must be adopted.
Tm&
R)%21%-36?(8:,:-6+(1K'(H%,%+'(H36'(`5(%(QK%6+:6+(G3#*)(
Adaptation is “adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment that exploits beneficial opportunities or moderates negative effects.” (1)
Problem •! Drought in Africa
•! Extreme Heat Events in
Europe
•! Urban flooding in North America
Image
Adaptation Strategy (1) •! Reducing non-climate stressors
on water rec., sustainable urban devel., strengthen institutional capacities for demand mgmt.
•! Warning systems, reduced emissions to improve air qual., residence, workplace modifications
•! Use of pervious surfaces, rooftop gardens; wetland conservation, planting of mangroves, coast-protecting vegetation.
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PleasegoandseethelatestmoviewithAlGore(2017):
An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
>3"#('6(9%L3:#(2*"9?((>"`*:0(&K'i(H'(p3'&g(9"20#:'"#N(3&13`#'(EFAT(p#3&K0?(Af('"#39(]O`33g?(AV('"#39((!1#%g9(:6(K'1(e')'#*%6)9(/':6)(EFAC7N(`:@(]>d(
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Pour en savoir plus : !! www.ipcc.ch : GIEC ou IPCC !! www.climate.be/vanyp : beaucoup de mes dias !! www.plateforme-wallonne-giec.be : Plateforme
wallonne pour le GIEC (e.a., Lettre d’information) !! www.my2050.be : calculateur de scénarios !! www.realclimate.org : réponses aux semeurs de doute !! www.skepticalscience.com : idem
!! Sur Twitter: @JPvanYpersele @IPCC_CH
