Les politiques environnementales et énergétiques aux États-Unis :

défis et paradoxes

Pierre-Olivier PineauProfesseur titulaire, HEC Montréal

CÉRIUM École d’été 2013Les États-Unis dans un tourbillon de crises : déclin ou adaptation ?

3744 Jean-Brillant salle 580-32Mercredi 10 juillet 2013 – 13h30 - 16h30

Pierre-Olivier Pineau 2

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Consomation de produits pétroliers

Production de pétrole

Consommation de gaz naturel

Production de gaz naturel

Pétrole et gaz naturel aux États-Unis1973-2012 (+importations pétrole 2012)

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Canada28%

Saudi Arabia13%

Mexico10%

Venezuela9%Russia

5%

Iraq4%

Nigeria4%

Colombia4%

Kuwait3%

Algeria2%

Other18%

EIA (2013)

Mill

ions

de

p3

1,3 mb/j

2,9 mb/j

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Consommation d’énergie aux É-U (2011)

09/07/2013 EIA (2013)

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Plan de la présentation

1. Pétrole et gaz naturel aux États-Unis2. Défis des changements climatiques3. Politiques environnementales

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Auto-suffisance énergétique

09/07/2013

IEA (2012)

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Sources anticipées de réduction des importations de pétrole aux É-U

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IEA (2012)

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Types de pétrole

Source: Canadian Society for Unconventional Resources Understanding Tight Oil

(Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage)In-situ/Mining«Schiste bitumineux»

«Pétrole de réservoirs étanches»

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Oil Shale / Schiste bitumineux

Oil shale (also known as kerogen shale)

… can be processed to obtain shale oil

Wikipedia & WEO (2010:168)

More than 3,500 billion barrels of oil shale resources originally in place throughout the world

(≈120 years of current consumption)

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Major basins with potential tight oil developments

CSUR

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Unconventional Oil: Tight Oil

• “U.S. doubles oil estimate for Bakken field”, CBC News (May 2, 2013) http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/05/02/business-bakken-oil.html

• United States Geological Survey:– 3.6 bb of oil , technically recoverable (2008)– 7.4 billion barrels of oil (2013) (20 years of

production at 1 million b/d)– Since 2008, more than 4,000 wells drilled– 6.7 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, technically

recoverable natural gas

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Increasing US Tight Oil Production

US EIA (2012)

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Tight oil & Gulf of Mexico deepwater drive projected increases in U.S. crude oil production

US EIA (2012)

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Bakken Export Capacity

US EIA (2013)

Rail is about 3 times more expansive / barrel

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Bakken Oil Price versus WTI

US EIA (2013)

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Western Canada Select (WCS) versus WTI & Maya

Alberta (2013)

$43 discount compared to Maya (a Mexican benchmark for heavy crude oil)

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Keystone pipeline system

TransCanada (2013)

• 1,179-mile (1,897 km)

• 36-inch-diameter• 830,000 b/d• ≈$10/barrel vs.

$30 for rail

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Capacité de transport versus production projetée de pétrole

09/07/2013CAPP (2013)

Pineau / HEC Montréal 18

US production of Shale Gas(2000-2013)

Billi

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day

EIA (2013)

Pineau / HEC Montréal 19

Growth in total US gas productionTr

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feet

(per

yea

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EIA (2013)

Pineau / HEC Montréal 20EIA (2013)

Average Shale Gas Well Production Rate

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Foreuses actives aux É-U

IEA (2012 )

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2. DÉFIS DES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES

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Industrie (-13%)28%

Transport (18%)27%

Résidentiel (20%)17%

Commercial (23%)18%

Agriculture (18%)

9%

Territoires US (72%)

1%

Émissions de GES aux É-U en 2011 par secteur économique, après répartition des émissions du

secteur électrique (changement depuis 1990)

09/07/2013EPA (2013)

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Émissions de GES aux É-U en 2011

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Émissions totales en 20116,702 Millions de tonnes de CO2-equivalent

Protoxyde d’azoteOxyde nitreux Gaz fluorés

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Sources d’émission de CO2, CH4 et N2O

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CO2CH4

N2O

Pierre-Olivier Pineau 2609/07/2013EPA (2013)

Émissions de GES par gaz aux É-U1990-2011

Million

27IEA (2012)

Risques environmentaux de la fracturation

hydraulique

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Besoins en eau par unité de gaz naturel produit (m3 / terajoule)

IEA (2012)

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The role of various substances in the hydraulic fracturing process

AGC (2012)

Friction reducers—Minimize friction in the well.Biocides—Eliminate bacteria that produce corrosive by-products.Solvents—Extract impurities from natural gas and are used for clearing and de-icing.Surfactants—Increase the viscosity of the fracturing fluid.Scale inhibitors—Prevent deposits from forming in the well and surface equipment.Acids—Dissolve minerals and initiate cracks in the rock formation.

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Methane emissions along the gas value chain

1. Intentional venting of gas for safety or economic reasons. Venting during well completions falls into this category, but venting can also take place as part of equipment maintenance operations.

2. Fugitive emissions. These might be leaks in pipelines, valves or seals, whether accidental (e.g. corrosion in pipelines) or built into the equipment design (e.g. rotating seals, open tanks).

3. Incidents involving rupture of confining equipment (pipelines, pressurised tanks, well isolation).

4. Incomplete burning. The effectiveness of gas burning in gas flares varies according to wind and other conditions and is typically no better than 98%.

IEA (2012)

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Upstream GHG Emissions from Shale Gas, by Life Cycle Stage

WRI (2013)

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A Simplified Life Cycle Process Map

WRI (2013)

33WRI (2013)

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Golden Rules 1• Measure, disclose and engage– Engage with local communities, residents and other

stakeholders into each phase of a development– Establish baselines for key environmental indicators– Measure and disclose operational data on water use on

methane and other air emissions.– Minimise disruption during operations, taking a broad view

of social and

IEA (2012)

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Golden Rules 2• Watch where you drill– Choose well sites so as to minimise impacts– Properly survey the geology of the area– Monitor to ensure that hydraulic fractures do not extend

beyond the gas producing formations.• Isolate wells and prevent leaks– Put in place robust rules on well design, construction,

cementing and integrity testing.– Consider appropriate minimum-depth limitations– Take action to prevent and contain surface spills and leaks

from wells, and to ensure that any waste fluids and solids are disposed of properly.

IEA (2012)

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Golden Rules 3• Treat water responsibly– Reduce freshwater use by improving operational

efficiency; reuse or recycle– Store and dispose of produced and waste water safely.– Minimise use of chemical additives

• Eliminate venting, minimise flaring and other emissions– Target zero venting and minimal flaring of natural gas

during well completion and seek to reduce fugitive and vented GHG emissions during

– Minimise air pollution from vehicles, drilling rig engines, pump engines and compressors.

IEA (2012)

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Golden Rules 4• Be ready to think big– Seek opportunities for realising the economies of scale and

co-ordinated development– Take into account the cumulative and regional effects of

multiple drilling and production • Ensure a consistently high level of env. performance– Back output by sufficient permitting and compliance staff,

and reliable public information.– Appropriate balance in policy-making between prescriptive

regulation and performance-based regulation– Robust emergency response plans.– Continuous improvement of practices.– Independent evaluation and verification of env. perf.

IEA (2012)

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Total Primary Energy Consumption1980-2008 (with growth for the period)

Canada 45%France 35%Sweden 7%Switzerland 16%Denmark -3%

World: +74% in Total Primary Energy ConsumptionPer capita:

World +15.5%Canada +7.2%France +16%Sweden -1.7%Switzerland -2.5%Denmark -9.5%

US EIA (2010)

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WorldUnited StatesGermanyCanadaDenmark

Consommation de pétrole mondialeMillion b/j (2000-2012)

US EIA (2013)

+14.1%

+13.7%

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-23.7%

2000-2011

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3. POLITIQUES ENVIRONNEMENTALES

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Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007

• Normes de consommation de carburant des véhicules

• Biocarburant• Efficacité énergétique– Équipements électriques & ampoules– Bâtiment

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Waxman-Markey Bill (American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009)

• Système de plafonnement et d’échange de droits d’émissions (similaire au EU ETS)

• Approuvée par la Chambre des représentants (26 juin 2009, 219-212) mais rejetée au Sénat

• Réduction de 17% des GES en 2020, par rapport à 2005 (et -42% en 2030)… engagement faits à Copenhague en 2009 au

sommet sur le climat

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Le plan d’action de Obama sur les changements climatiques (juin 2013)

• Réductions des émissions des centrales aux charbon (EPA – états)

• Accéler le développement des «énergies propres»

• Normes de consommation de carburant des véhicules + biocarburants

• Efficacité énergétique

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Pierre-Olivier Pineau 4409/07/2013

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Références• CAPP (2013) Crude Oil - Forecast, Markets &

Transportation, Calgary: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

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